Yukon River Chinook Run Timing - Alaska Ocean Observing System
Original (non-English) name
Acronym
Yukon River Chinook Run Timing - AOOS
Citation
Abstract
Researchers from NOAA Fisheries and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, with the support of the Alaska Ocean Observing System, identified a combination of spring conditions that are closely related to the timing of Chinook salmon on the Yukon delta. Using percent spring ice cover between St. Lawrence Island and the Yukon delta, April air temperatures in Nome, and marine surface temperatures just offshore of the delta in May.
This timing and environmental information is intended for use by fishery managers, residents of Yukon River communities, and others to estimate when the Chinook salmon run will arrive on the delta and how it will develop through June and July. The outlook and its associated forecast are based on the historical fish and environmental variables.
The Forecast includes (1) the modeled and estimated cumulative daily percentage of the year’s Chinook salmon run, (2) the cumulative catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) of the delta test fisheries, as reported daily by ADF&G compared to a selection of cumulative CPUEs of historical runs, and (3) marine environmental data (see charts in the forecast) that are used as inputs to the year’s outlook and forecast model. As data on the fish migration data develop, they are plotted on Chart 1 so it can be seen how well the actual run matches the model and forecasts. When the timing model doesn’t match the actual run, the timing model and forecasts may be updated.