Six-Day High Sea Level Forecast - Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System
Original (non-English) name
Acronym
Six-Day High Sea Level Forecast - PacIOOS
Citation
Abstract
The Six-Day High Sea Level Forecast is a tool to predict higher than usual sea level at locations such as protected harbors and atoll lagoons. The forecast provides information that contributes to safe and reliable operations by harbor users, and provides a benefit to residential and commercial property owners in surrounding low-lying areas. This forecast does not incorporate the effects of wind-generated gravity waves, either locally or remotely forced, and therefore does not indicate the magnitude of short-period surges that also impact harbor operations (see the description of the PacIOOS Harbor Surge Forecast). This Six-Day High Sea Level Forecast tool should also be used cautiously in assessing high sea level danger on exposed coasts and shoreline areas outside the harbor or lagoon, since, as just noted, the forecast does not include the significant impact of wind-generated gravity waves on coastal sea levels (see the description of the PacIOOS Wave Run-Up Forecast).
PacIOOS currently offers the Six-Day High Sea Level Forecast for 9 harbor locations throughout the Pacific Islands region. While observed sea level heights and tide predictions are readily available elsewhere for these locations, there have been periods of time (exclusive of tsunamis and storm surges) when the sea level exceeds the predicted tide enough to produce unexpected flooding of low-lying land near these stations. These events are usually due to the forcing of higher sea level, on top of that due to the tides, by common, but strong, local winds and/or by ocean currents evolving offshore. The Six-Day High Sea Level Forecast was developed to enhance preparedness by providing advance notice of such events. The forecast is updated hourly (about 15 minutes after the hour) and dates and times are shown in local time.
In case of possible high sea levels, please consult with local authorities to seek further information and direction. The PacIOOS High Sea Level Forecast does not serve as a warning system.
For a seasonal outlook of monthly sea level anomalies, please visit the University of Hawaiʻi Sea Level Center. The seasonal forecast products take astronomical tide predictions into consideration as well as background contributions, such as eddies, El Niño effects, and global sea level rise.